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即墨治疗妇科病医院哪里好即墨老年体检套餐即墨市不育医院 Somali Pirate Good at Economics懂经济的索马里海盗As Somali pirates become ever more audacious , they are regularly portrayed in the press as vicious aggressors, taking innocent people hostage, only to auction them off at vast rausoms. There is much truth in that: on Thursday one pirate band hijacked a U.S.-bound oil tanker even asit emerged that another had killed two Filipino crewmen in late January after a botched rescue mission. But there is another way to assess these buccaneers: as businessmen, who have smartly figured out the way trade is flowing , and how to get their share.由于索马里海盗越来越猖獗,他们在媒体上经常被描绘成狠毒歹把无辜的人抓为人质,勒索巨额赔金后才肯放人。很大程度上事实确实如此:上周,一伙海盗劫持了一艘去往美国的油 1月下旬,在救援行动出现失误而失败后,另一伙海盗杀害了两名菲律宾船员。但还有另一种方式来评估这些海盗:作为商人,他们聪明地搞清楚国际贸易如何流动,并研究出自己怎样从中分到一杯羹。The booming piracy industry is a neat metaphor for our globalised economy. Just about everything you need to know about how money is made and lost is encapsulated4 in the daily battles between cargo captains and the pirate skiffs in the Somali basin.;海盗;的繁荣是对垒球化经济的一个生动隐喻。在索马里海盆,货轮船长和海盗的小艇每天上演的战斗,浓缩了所有关于如何赚到金钱,又如何损失金钱的事情。For starters, know your customer. One of the keys to understanding the modern multinational is to realise it hates embarrassment. Bear in mind that when faced with any challenge, whether from a lobby group, government or nerdy teenager on Twitter, its instinctive response is to crumple. Then imagine what it will do when confronted with poor people with guns: give in without a fight. Sure enough, most shipping companies dont even allow their guards to bear weapons. It is not the kind of thing Human Resources wants to get involved in. All the pirates have to do is take a ship, steer it to harbour, then ask for a few million dollars for its return. So long as they dont hurt anyone and usually they have understood that a modern multinational will always pay up, to make the problem go away.首先,要了解客户。了解现代跨国公司的关键点是要明白他们不喜欢难堪。要记住,当面临任何挑战时,无论是面对峙说团体、政府还是Twitter上的某个小宅男,他们的本能反应都是屈。再设想一下他们面对端着的穷人时会怎么不战而降。当然,多数航运公司甚至不允许他们的保安携带武器,那可不是人力资源部门愿意静足的事。海盗们需要做的只是劫一艘船理开回港,口,放出话来说收到数百万美元的赎金后才放行。只要不伤害任何人,他们通常不会伤害人,他们明白一家现代跨国公司总是愿意为了息事宁人而掏钱的。Second, as the economy changes, stay flexible and be y to reinvent yourself. Somalia was not always a hotbed of piracy. Its main industryin the Puntland region where the pirates have their hub, was fishing. After the government collapsed, however, its territorial waters could not be enforced, and other fleets came and stole the stock. But, as the saying has it, there are always other fish in the sea. At the same time, the mighty Chinese export machine was cranking into action, sending quantities of material to Europe. The most economical route was up through the Suez Canal, which meant that Puntlands ex-fishermen had billions of dollars of stuff sailing right past them. All they needed to do was ask for a fraction of that what bond traders would call a quarter of a basis point. And, hey presto, theyd become toll collectors rather than fishermen.其次,随着经济的变化,保持灵活,随时准备转型。索马里并非一直是海盗的温床,在海盗集中的邦特兰地区,植业曾是柱产业。然而政府垮台后,由于无法保护其领悔,别国船只进入其领海,盗捕植业资源。但是,正如一句老话所说,海里总有别的鱼。同一时期,中国强大的出口机器开始运转,将大量物资运往欧洲。最经济的航路局通过苏伊士运河,这就意味着巨额货物在邦特兰的前渔民们面前经过。他们需要做的只是从中索取极小的一部分,也就是债券交易者所说的四分之一个基点。于是这些渔民摇身一变,当上了收费员。Three, equip yourself with the right kit. You never want to let your IT department get behind the curve. Piracy is, just like everything, fundamentally an information business. You are not going to get much of a ransom for a ship full of wheat or cement. What you want is a boatload of snazzy Samsung 3D TVs, or, even betteriPhones. Fortunately, ships are now fitted with the Automatic Identification System, a computer system that logs details of every ship, its crew and cargo. It is great for customs, and ship management: unfortunately, the pirates are smart enough to hack into it. They know precisely which vessels are worth targeting. When that fails, they use spotters in Dubai and Oman to make note of valuable boats. As anyone in the City of London will tell you, the only trades worth doing are the inside ones. The pirates have learnt that lesson.第三,用精良的工具装备自己。千万不要让IT部门落后于潮流。海盗像其他行业一样,从根本上说是一种信息业务。要是挟持了一船小麦或水泥囊恐怕敲诈不到多少赎金。最好挟持的是一船时髦的三星3D电视,要是一船iPhone就更好了。幸运的是,如今船舶上都装配了船舶自动就别系统,这种电脑系统记录下每鲤船以及船上船员和货物的详细数据。这对海关和船舶管理者无疑很有帮助,但不幸的是,精明的海盗也能侵入其中。他们清楚地知道哪些船值得下手。如果黑客人侵失败,他们还能让守候在迪拜和阿曼的;侦察;摸清哪些船舶值得下手。伦敦金融城的任何内行都会告诉你,只有内幕交易才值得做。海盗们早已领悟了这一点。Four, pay the staff right. The economics of a hit are as precisely tabulated as a McKinsey time-and-motion study. Each attack costs about 0. An investor puts up the capital in return for a third of the takings: Londons private equity houses would probably drive a harder bargain,but would recognise the structure of the deal. The money is used for the information, the skiff the guns,and the khat, a powerful narcotic the pirates chew constantly. Remaining profits are split equally between the men. The youngest member of the attack force, usually about 14, will scale the ship first a dangerous job, with the highest probability of getting killed but will get 30 per cent extra. Get some gung-ho youngsters, and allow them to take huge if potentially lethal risks, with the promise of a vast bonus if by some miracle they get out alive? There probably isnt a director of an investment bank who wouldnt recognise the business model.第四,合理付员工。一次海盗袭击的经济学数据,就好比麦肯锚的一项动作和时间研究,有条有理。每次海盗袭击的成本大约000美元。投资者提供资本,以换取三分之一的赎金。伦敦的私募股权基金大概会要求更高的回报,但对这种交易结构也能认可。这笔钱用于付信息、快艇、,以及海盗们经常在嚼的强力麻醉品——阿拉伯茶。剩下的利润由所有海盗平;突击;里最年轻的队员往往只有14岁,他们会首先登船。这是个危险的任务,被杀死的概率最大,但能多拿30%的分成。找一些敢于冲锋陆阵的年轻人,让他们承担可能致命的巨大风险,承诺如果他们奇迹般地活着回来就能得到巨额分红。投资的老总们恐怕都很熟悉这种商业模式。Finally, if nothing else, the pirates success shows that trickle-down economics does work eventually. Parts of Somalia are growing rich on the ;tolls; their seafarers collect from cargo ships steaming between Asia and Europe. Its just that sometimes you need a few AK-47s to make sure some of the wealth trickles down to you.最后,至少可以说,海盗的成功显示了向下滴流经济学最终的确是有效的。索马里的一些地区靠海盗们从来往于亚洲和欧洲之间的货轮上敲诈;通行;得以脱贫致富。只是有时候要有几AK-47突击步,才能保这些财富能;;到你兜里。来 /201410/334004即墨市蓝村中心卫生院产前检查好吗

即墨市中医院做人流ATHENS Greece rejected the punishing economics of austerity on Sunday and sent a warning signal to the rest of Europe as the left-wing Syriza party won a decisive victory in national elections, positioning its tough-talking leader, Alexis Tsipras, to become the next prime minister.雅典——周日,随着左翼政党激进左翼联Syriza)在全国大选中赢得决定性胜利,使得该党语气强硬的领导人亚历克西斯·齐普拉Alexis Tsipras)成为下一任总理,雅典开始抵制严格的经济紧缩政策,并向欧洲其他国家发出了一个警告信号。With 60 percent of the vote counted, Syriza had 36 percent, almost eight points ahead of the governing center-right New Democracy Party of Prime Minister Antonis Samaras, who had conceded defeat. The only uncertainty was whether Syriza would muster an outright parliamentary majority or if it would have to form a coalition.在目前已经统计的60%的选票中,激进左翼联盟赢得了36%的投票,领先执政党——现任总理安东尼斯·萨马拉斯(Antonis Samaras)领导的中右翼政党新民主党(New Democracy Party)将近八个百分点,萨马拉斯已经承认败选。唯一不确定的是,激进左翼联盟是会获得议会的大多数席位,还是需要组成联合政府。Appearing before a throng of supporters outside Athens University late Sunday night, Mr. Tsipras, 40, declared that the era of austerity was over and promised to revive the Greek economy. He also said his government would not allow Greece’s creditors to strangle the country.周日深夜0岁的齐普拉斯现身雅典大学(Athens University)校园外,对众多持者表示,紧缩时代结束了,并承诺重振希腊经济。他还表示,他领导的政府不会允许希腊的债主们压制希腊的发展。“Greece will now move ahead with hope, and reach out to Europe, and Europe is going to change,he said. “The verdict is clear: We will bring an end to the vicious circle of austerity.”“希腊现在将带着希望前进,向欧洲求助,而欧洲将会出现改变,”他说。“这个决定很明确:我们将终结紧缩举措的恶性循环。”Syriza’s victory is a dramatic milestone for Europe at a time when continuing economic weakness has stirred an angry, populist backlash from France to Spain to Italy, as more voters grow fed up with policies that demand sacrifice to address the discipline of financial markets without delivering more jobs and prosperity. Syriza is poised to become the first anti-austerity party to take power in a eurozone country, and would shatter the two-party political establishment that has dominated Greece for four decades.激进左翼联盟的胜利对于欧洲来说是一个戏剧性的里程碑,目前,欧洲经济依旧疲软,从法囀?西班牙到意大利,民众已被激怒,引发民粹主义反弹,越来越多的选民对紧缩政策感到厌烦,这种政策要求民众做出牺牲,对金融市场加以惩戒,却带不来工作机会和繁荣。激进左翼联盟即将成为欧元区国家中第一个反对紧缩政策的执政党,并且终结了希0年来的两党政治体制。“Democracy will return to Greece,said Mr. Tsipras, speaking earlier to a swarm of reporters and photographers as he cast his ballot in Athens. “The message is that our common future in Europe is not the future of austerity.”“希腊将回归民主,”齐普拉斯早些时候在雅典投票时对一群记者和摄影师说。“此次发出的信息是,欧洲共同的未来不是一个紧缩的未来。”Youthful, with a seemingly unflappable demeanor, Mr. Tsipras has worked diligently to soften his image as an anti-Europe radical, joking that his opponents had accused him of everything except stealing other men’s wives. On the campaign trail, he has promised to clean up Greece’s corrupt political system, reform the country’s public administration and reduce the tax burden on the middle class while cracking down on tax evasion by the country’s oligarchical business class.充满朝气、看起来从容不迫的齐普拉斯努力软化自己反欧洲激进分子的形象,并开玩笑称,他的对手对他提出了各种指责,除了与别人的老婆偷情。在参加竞选时,他承诺整顿希腊腐败的政治体系,对公共行政系统进行改革,减轻中产阶级税负,同时打击该国寡头商业阶层的逃税行为。But his biggest promise and the one that has stirred deep anxiety in Brussels and Berlin as well as on financial markets has been his pledge to force Greece’s creditors, led by Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, to renegotiate the terms of the country’s 240 billion euro financial bailout. Squeezed by belt-tightening policies intended to stabilize the government’s finances, Greece has endured a historic collapse since the economic crisis, as economic output has shrunk by 25 percent and unemployment still hovers at roughly 26 percent.但他最重要的承诺是,迫使以德国总理安格拉·默克尔(Angela Merkel)为首的债主们就2400亿欧约合2.07万亿元人民币)的金融援助计划条款重新进行谈判,这个承诺在布鲁塞尔、柏林及金融市场引发极大的担忧。旨在稳定政府财务状况的紧缩政策致使希腊捉襟见肘,自年经济危机以来,希腊经历了一场空前的崩溃,经济产出减5%,失业率仍旧6%上下徘徊。In setting up a showdown in coming weeks with Germany and the country’s other creditors, Mr. Tsipras has argued that easing the bailout terms would allow more government spending, stimulating more economic growth and employment as well as helping the Greeks who need it the most.为了在未来几周与德国及其他债主摊牌,齐普拉斯辩称,放宽援助计划条款将增加政府开,进一步刺激经济增长和就业,给最需要这种举措的希腊人带来帮助。“Tsipras won because those who imposed austerity never thought about the effects of such drastic policies that impoverished millions of people,said Paul De Grauwe, a professor at the London School of Economics and a former adviser to the European Commission. “In a world where people are so hit, they just don’t remain passive. Their reaction is to turn to the politicians who will change the process.”“齐普拉斯赢得选举是因为,那些实施紧缩政策的人从未想过这种极端政策带来的影响,这种政策让数以百万计的人陷入贫困,”伦敦政治经济学London School of Economics)教授、前欧盟委员European Commission)顾问保罗·德格罗韦(Paul De Grauwe)说。“遭受如此打击的人民,是不会逆来顺受的。他们的反应是求助于将会改变这一过程的政治人士。”Mr. Tsipras will face immediate challenges. Greece is still waiting for a 7 billion euro bailout payment that Athens needs to keep the government running and to pay off billions in debt obligations due in the coming months. He has also demanded that creditors write down at least half of Greece’s 319 billion euro public debt in order to give the country more breathing room for a spending stimulus that he says would give the economy a much-needed jolt.齐普拉斯很快就会面临挑战。希腊仍在等0亿欧元的援助资金,希腊人需要这笔钱维持政府运转,偿还未来几个月就要到期的数十亿欧元的债务。他还要求债主至少将希190亿欧元的公共债务减记一半,以便让该国有更多的喘息空间刺激消费。他认为,刺激消费将会给该国经济带来急需的提振。Mr. Tsipras has pledged immediate action, including restoring electricity to poor families who have lost services for unpaid bills. He has promised to raise the minimum wage to 751 euros a month from 586 euros a month for all workers; restore collective bargaining agreements;prohibit mass layoffs; and create 300,000 jobs.齐普拉斯许诺立即采取行动,包括向因未付账单而被断电的贫困家庭恢复供电。他还承诺将面向所有行业的最低工资从每月586欧元提高51欧元、恢复劳资双方集体谈判协议、禁止大规模裁员并创0万个就业岗位。Jens Weidmann, president of Bundesbank, the German central bank, warned that Greece would remain dependent on outside financial support and that the new Greek government “should not make promises that the country cannot afford.”德国央行德国联邦银Bundesbank)行长延斯·魏德Jens Weidmann)告诫称,希腊可能依然会依赖外部的财政持,并且新一届希腊政府“不应许下国家负担不起的诺言”。“I hope the new government won’t call into question what is expected and what has aly been achieved,Mr. Weidmann said in an interview with Germany’s public broadcaster.“我希望新一届政府不要质疑目标和当前现状,”魏德曼在接受德国公共广播公司的采访时说。On the streets of Athens, voters expressed a range of emotions as they went to the polls, from anger to betrayal to fear to hope.在雅典街头,选民在前往投票站时表现出了各种各样的情绪,有愤怒也有觉得被背叛,有恐惧也有希望。At a polling station in Mets, a middle-class district near central Athens, Achilleas Mandrakis, 47, said he runs a garage but was struggling to stay afloat after his wife lost her job at a shoe store. “I always voted New Democracy, and I never trusted the leftists,he said. “But enough is enough, really. We kept giving them a chance, but they messed up. They’ve made our lives miserable.在雅典市中心附近的中产阶级聚集区梅茨的一处投票站7岁的阿希里斯·曼德拉基Achilleas Mandrakis)说自己经营着一家汽车修理厂,但自从妻子失去了在一家鞋店的工作后,他就难以维持下去了。“我一直投新民主党,从不相信左翼,”他说。“但真的够了。我们一直给他们机会,但他们却搞砸了。他们害得我们生活悲惨。”“At least a different party might change something in this mess, anything.”“至少另一个政党可能会给这烂摊子带来一些变化,什么都行啊。”In a brief news conference late Sunday night, Mr. Samaras vowed that his party would continue to play a role in Greek politics and defended his government. “I received the country at the edge of a cliff,he said. “I was asked to take burning coals into my hands and I did it.”在周日深夜的新闻发布会上,萨马拉斯誓称他领导的政党将继续在希腊政坛发挥作用,并为他这一届政府进行了辩护。“我临危受命,接手这个国家,”他说。“我被要求接过烫手的山芋,我照做了。”Mr. Samaras said that Greece had moved away from deficits and recession and that his government had “restored the credibility of the country.”萨马拉斯表示,希腊已经摆脱了赤字和衰退,并且他领导的政府已经“恢复了国家的信誉”。For Syriza, the immediate question was whether the party would win the 151 seats needed to have an outright majority in Parliament. Projections showed that the result would be very close, and if he falls short, Mr. Tsipras might align with the fringe party, Independent Greeks, a center-right, anti-austerity movement that might push for a harder line in any debt negotiations. Early returns also showed that the neo-fascist Golden Dawn party was in third place with roughly 6 percent of the total vote.对激进左翼联盟来说,迫切的问题是,该党能否在议会赢得占绝对多数所需51个席位。预测显示,结果可能会非常接近,并且如果达不到这个席位数,齐普拉斯可能会与边缘政党独立希腊人(Independent Greeks)结盟。该党是一个中左翼反紧缩团体,可能会要求在一切债务谈判中采取更强硬的立场。早期反馈还显示,新法西斯主义政党金色黎明党(Golden Dawn)获得了大%的选票,位居第三。While Greece sees itself as being punished by creditorsdemands, Germany and a host of European officials have argued that Greece and other troubled eurozone nations must clean up the high debts and deficits at the root of Europe’s debt crisis. They say Athens has still failed to make enough headway on the structural reforms necessary to put the economy on better footing, and they are pressing Greece to raise billions of euros through more budgetary cutbacks and taxes.希腊认为自己是在债权人要求下接受惩罚,但德国和很多欧洲官员表示,希腊和其他身处困境的欧元区国家必须清理高额债务和赤字,它们是欧洲债务危机的根源。为了改善经济基础,必须进行结构改革,但他们表示,雅典依然未在这方面取得足够的进展。他们正在向希腊施压,要求其通过进一步削减预算和征税,以筹集数十亿欧元。Many analysts say Mr. Tsipras must moderate his campaign promises and take a more centrist approach if he wants to save the economy and keep Greece solvent. “That will be the best possible outcome for Greece and for Europe, because it would show that these protest movements ultimately recognize reality which is that they are in the euro, and they have to play by the rules,said Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington.许多分析人士表示,如果想挽救经济,保持希腊有偿债能力,齐普拉斯必须让自己的竞选承诺变得温和些,并采取更中间派的方式。“不管是对希腊还是欧洲来说,这可能都是最好的结果,因为事实会表明,这些抗议团体最终会承认现实,那就是,它们身在欧元区,必须遵守规则,”华盛顿彼得森国际经济研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)高级研究员雅各布·芬克·柯克加德(Jacob Funk Kirkegaard)说。Otherwise, he warned, “things could get a lot worse.”否则,他警告称,“形势会进一步恶化。”“Very, very quickly,he added.“而且会非常非常快,”他接着说。来 /201501/356854青岛当代妇产医院在线咨询 即墨哪里妇科好

即墨市人流哪家好To the casual observer, it’s easy to doubt that China and Russia would have ever struck a natural gas supply and purchase deal during Russian President Vladimir Putin’s meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Shanghai last month. After all, countless summits between Chinese and Russian leaders have come and gone with no final agreement signed for the long-discussed plans to ship more Russian gas to China. However, Putin and Xi finally ended an energy courtship, agreeing to a 0 billion deal for the delivery of 38 billion cubic meters of natural gas to China starting in 2018.中俄天然气交易已经酝酿数年之久,如今终于达成协议。包括这笔交易在内,中俄近十几年年来在能源领域的一系列合作表明,双方弈的主动权已经逐渐从俄罗斯转移到了中国手中。Long before the Chinese and Russian leaders on May 21 toasted their supply contract, the two countries had viewed each other as attractive natural gas partners. Russia regarded tapping into the Chinese market as essential to its plans to diversify its exports away from Europe, where natural gas demand is projected to grow at a substantially slower pace than in China. Meanwhile, the surge in China’s natural gas demand in recent years made the Chinese eye their northern neighbor, the world’s largest natural gas exporter, as an important source of supply to fill the gap between China’s domestic natural gas production and consumption.上个月,俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔o普京与中国国家主席习近平在上海会面时,外行的观察者们可能不会相信中俄两国会达成天然气供应协议。毕竟,针对俄罗斯向中国增加天然气出口的问题,两国经历了漫长的谈判,双方领导人也进行了无数次会谈,却始终没有结果。最终,普京与习近平终于敲定,000亿美元的能源合作协议。双方商定,俄罗斯从2018年开始,每年向中国输80亿立方米天然气。Developments in the months leading up to the Shanghai summit may have provided Russia and China with added incentives to get serious about a natural gas marriage. For Russia, the new imperative is the country’s increased isolation from the ed States and Europe in the wake of Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the resulting Western sanctions.51日,中俄两国领导人为达成天然气供应协议举杯庆贺。事实上,两国很早便将彼此视为极具吸引力的天然气合作伙伴。俄罗斯希望摆脱天然气出口业务对欧洲的依赖,而中国市场对实现这个计划至关重要。根据预测,欧洲市场的天然气需求增长速度将远远低于中囀?而另一面,近几年,中国天然气需求激增,而中国的北方近邻作为全球最大的天然气出口国,自然被中国视为填补国内天然气产量与消费量差距的重要供应来源。Europe’s renewed interest in finding alternatives to natural gas supplies from Russia, and the calls by U.S. policymakers and pundits for Washington to expedite the process for granting LNG export licenses and lift the virtual ban on crude oil exports to help wean Europe off Russian energy, undoubtedly made signing a gas pact with China even more appealing to Moscow.而近几个月,促使两国举行上海峰会的局势变化,也为中俄认真考虑天然气合作提供了更多诱因。在俄罗斯方面,吞并克里米亚地区和由此导致的西方国家制裁使俄罗斯遭到美国和欧洲的进一步孤立,因此,与中国的合作势在必行。For China, the country’s poor air quality and it’s “war on pollutiondeclared by Premier Li Keqiang in March likely increased the desirability of Russian natural gas. Indeed, the Chinese government’s announcement in April that the country aims to more than double the country’s natural gas consumption from 170 bcm in 2013 to 400-420 bcm in 2020 means China now needs Russian gas more than ever.欧洲重新开始寻找新的天然气供应以取代俄罗斯,而美国决策者和华盛顿权威人士呼吁加快授予液化天然气出口许可的进程以及取消原油出口禁令,以帮助欧洲摆脱对俄罗斯能源的依赖,这无疑使得莫斯科方面更加迫切与中国签署一份天然气协定。The major obstacle that Russia and China encountered on past attempts to make it to the altar was price. Russia did not want to sell gas to China at a price lower than it commanded in Europe, its largest customer. Meanwhile, China did not want to buy gas at a higher price than it paid Turkmenistan, its largest supplier of natural gas.在中国方面,糟糕的空气质量以及今年三月份李克强总理“向污染宣战”的决心使得俄罗斯的天然气更具吸引力。实际上,中国政府今年四月份宣布,到2020年,全国天然气消费量将增长两倍以上,013年的1,700亿立方米增加,000 4,200亿立方米。这就意味着,中国现在更需要俄罗斯的天然气。Although the Russians and the Chinese have come to a meeting of the minds on price, they are treating it as a commercial secret. Consequently, there has been much speculation by outside analysts about the price implied by the 0 billion contract and what it says about which country got the better deal. A back-of-the-envelope calculation yields an implied price of 0 per thousand cubic meters, which is close to what the Chinese are understood to have paid for gas from Turkmenistan last year. This estimate fits with the consensus among many outside observers in the lead up to the summit that Chinese had the upper hand due to Russia’s strained relations with the U.S. and Europe and the number of natural gas producers eager to supply the Chinese market.过去,中俄无法达成天然气协议的主要障碍在于价格。俄罗斯不希望价格低于自己向最大的客户欧洲出口天然气的价格。而中国却不希望价格高于自己从最大天然气供应国土库曼斯坦进口天然气的价格。That said, we do not know the pricing formula, the base number to be plugged into that formula or how a variety of other issues on the negotiating table such as the apparent lack of upstream access in Russia for the Chinese, a rumored prepayment from the Chinese to the Russians, a Russian proposal to exempt gas sent to China from a mineral extraction tax, a Chinese proposal to exempt Russian supplies from an LNG import tax, and expectations about the pace of natural gas price reform in China influenced both countries decisions about price.中俄两国最终就价格问题达成了共识,但双方都把这个价格看成商业机密。因此,对于4,000亿美元合同中隐含的价格以及合同的受益方,外界分析师有大量的猜测。通过大致计算得出的隐含价格是每千立方50美元,基本接近去年中国从土库曼斯坦进口天然气的价格。这个估算结果也符合许多外部观察家在两国领导人峰会之前的一致意见,即由于俄罗斯与美国和欧洲的紧张关系,而且希望向中国市场供应天然气的国家大有人在,因此,中国在谈判中掌握了主动权。It is also important to note that this is not a marriage among equals. The natural gas supply agreement is the third time in the past decade that the Russians have brokered a multi-billion dollar energy deal with the Chinese in a time of need. In 2005, the China Development Bank and the Export-Import Bank of China were lenders of last resort to Rosneft, providing the Russian national oil company with a billion oil-backed loan to help fund the purchase of the main production asset of a private Russian oil company, Yukos.另外需要注意的一点是,中俄两国在这笔交易中并不是处在平等的地位上。过去十年间,包括此次天然气供应协议在内,俄罗斯曾经三次在有需要的时候与中国达成数十亿美元的能源交易005年,中国国家开发(China Development Bank)与中国进出口(Export-Import Bank of China)成为俄罗斯石油公司(Rosneft)的最后贷款人,为这家俄罗斯国有石油公司提0亿美元以石油为抵押的贷款,帮助它收购俄罗斯私有石油公司尤科斯(Yukos)的主要生产资产。Four years later, the China Development Bank extended oil-backed loans worth billion to Rosneft and Transneft, the state-owned pipeline operator, when oil prices collapsed and credit crunch during the global financial crisis left both Russian companies in a world of hurt. These deals have not only deepened bilateral energy relations, but also underscored a shift in power in the relationship away from Russia and toward China.四年后,中国国家开发向俄罗斯石油公司和俄罗斯国有管道运营商俄罗斯石油运输公司(Transneft)提供了250亿美元以石油为抵押的贷款。当时正值全球金融危机,石油价格暴跌,信贷紧缩,这两家俄罗斯公司都陷入困境。这几笔交易不仅加深了两国的能源关系,同时也意味着在这种关系中,主动权正在从俄罗斯向中国转移。Regardless of which country may have conceded more, both countries can present themselves as winners to domestic and international audiences. The gas deal signifies that the China-Russia energy relationship is starting to live up to its full potential. Russia, which was China’s fourth largest crude oil supplier in 2013, is poised to become a major source of natural gas imports for its southern neighbor. This arrangement should provide Russia with greater security of demand and China with greater security of supply in the long-term. In the short-term, the main benefits of the gas agreement are political. Russia can claim a powerful friend in China, and China can point to another indicator of its growing economic and political clout on the world stage.不论到底哪一方做出了更多让步,在国内和国际舞台上,中国两国都把自己描绘成获胜者。这次的天然气交易预示着中俄两国的能源关系开始充分发挥潜力013年,俄罗斯是中国第四大原油供应国,未来将成为它南方邻邦重要的天然气进口来源。从长期来看,这份协议将分别给俄罗斯和中国带来更可靠的供应与需求保障。而从短期而言,天然气协议的主要好处表现在政治方面。俄罗斯可以获得中国这个强有力的盟友,而中国也获得了又一次机会,彰显出它在世界舞台日益扩大的经济与政治影响力。Erica Downs is a fellow in the John L. Thornton China Center at Brookings Institution. She focuses on the international expansion of Chinese companies and China’s energy and foreign policies as well as government-business relations in China, and was previously was an energy analyst at the CIA.本文作者邓丽嘉是布鲁金斯学会约翰oLo桑顿中国研究中心研究员。她一直致力于研究中国公司的海外扩张、中国的能源和外交政策以及中国政府与企业的关系,之前曾在美国中央情报局担任能源分析师 /201406/307770 Russia has threatened Denmark with a nuclear strike if it takes part in Nato’s missile shield, in some of the most incendiary comments yet directed at a member of the military alliance.俄罗斯威胁称,如果丹麦加入北Nato)的导弹防御系统,俄罗斯就可能对丹麦实施核打击。这是俄罗斯迄今对该军事联盟成员国发出的最为挑衅的言论。Russia’s ambassador to Denmark wrote in a newspaper opinion piece that the Nordic country had not fully understood the consequences of signing up to the Nato missile defence programme.俄罗斯驻丹麦大使在报上发表的文章中写道,这个北欧国家还没有完全明白签署北约导弹防御协议的后果。“If it happens, then Danish warships will be targets for Russia’s nuclear weapons. Denmark will be part of the threat to Russia,Mikhail Vanin wrote in Jyllands-Posten, a Danish daily.“如果发生了这样的事情,丹麦的战舰将成为俄罗斯核武器的目标。丹麦将成为俄罗斯的威胁之一,”米哈伊#8226;瓦宁(Mikhail Vanin)在丹麦《日德兰邮报Jyllands-Posten)上写道。The dramatic warning cranks up Russian pressure on countries in the Baltic region. Russian aircraft have violated the airspace of Estonia, Finland and Sweden and were involved in two near misses last year with passenger aircraft taking off from Copenhagen.这一戏剧性的警告加大了俄罗斯对波罗的海各国施加的压力。俄罗斯飞机已侵犯爱沙尼亚、芬兰和瑞典的领空,去年还两次险些与从哥本哈根起飞的客机相撞。The Danish government tried to maintain a calm front after the ambassador’s warning. Martin Lidegaard, foreign minister, called the comments “unacceptable adding: “Russia knows full well that Nato’s missile defence is not aimed at them. We are in disagreement with Russia on a number of important things but it is important that the tone between us does not escalate.”面对俄大使的警告,丹麦政府试图保持沉着姿态。丹麦外长马#8226;里德加德(Martin Lidegaard)称俄方言论“不可接受”,并补充道:“俄罗斯很清楚北约的导弹防御系统并非以俄罗斯为目标。我们和俄罗斯在一些重大事项上存在分歧,但我们对彼此说话的分贝不应升高,这一点很重要。”Mr Lidegaard indicated in August that Denmark would fit one or possibly more frigates with a type of radar that would allow the ships to be used in the Nato missile shield.去年8月里德加德曾表示,丹麦将在一艘或更多护卫舰上安装一种雷达,让这些护卫舰可被用于北约导弹防御系统。The defence shield has been mooted for more than a decade. Although Iranian missiles were mentioned when the shield proposals became more concrete in 2010-11, Russia has long suspected it would be used to neuter its nuclear deterrent. The chief of Russia’s general staff in 2012 threatened any country hosting the shield on its soil with a pre-emptive nuclear strike.这个导弹防御系统已经被讨论了10多年。尽010年到2011年间,建立导弹防御体系的方案变得更具体时,人们提到伊朗的导弹,但俄罗斯长期怀疑该系统是为了让俄罗斯的核威慑力失效012年俄军总参谋长曾威胁称,在国土上建立该导弹防御系统的任何国家,都可能面临俄罗斯先发制人的核打击。Nicolai Wammen, Denmark’s defence minister, said in August: “That Denmark will join the missile defence system with radar capacity on one or more of our frigates is not an action that is targeted against Russia, but rather to protect us against rogue states, terrorist organisations and others that have the capacity to fire missiles at Europe and the US.”丹麦国防部长尼科莱#8226;魏曼(Nicolai Wammen)去年8月表示:“丹麦加入导弹防御系统,在一艘或多艘护卫舰上安装雷达,并非针对俄罗斯的行动,而是为了抵御流氓国家、恐怖组织和有能力向欧洲和美国发射导弹的其他群体。”来 /201503/365905城阳棘洪滩马戈庄河套阴岛做人流哪家医院最好的青岛即墨看妇科炎症哪家医院最好的

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