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明星资讯腾讯娱乐2018年01月21日 20:28:47
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Renewables can depress wholesale prices, eg, when the sun creates a midday jolt. This discourages investors in the flexible, gas-powered generation needed to provide backup for windless, cloudy days. “The market dynamics are completely destroyed,” says Peter Terium, boss of RWE, one of the big four. There is talk of paying generators to offer capacity, not supply power. But such payments would add another subsidy distortion to the market.可再生能源会压低批发电价,比如在正午太阳当头时。这也从灵活性上令投资者犹豫不决,因为天然气发电器需要在无风的阴天里提供后备援。“市场动态完全被破坏了”,四大电力公司之一的RWE老总Peter Terium说。也有人讨论,电力公司有偿提供产能,而非电力。但这样的付方式会被市场扭曲理解为政府的另一项补贴。The 20 billion national-grid plan is another macro-project meant to channel micro-level exuberance. It assumes that the biggest need will be to supply northern wind power to southern and western consumers. Yet if so, perhaps renewables should be tempered elsewhere. “We have to synchronise infrastructure and renewables”, by allowing new wind and solar projects only where the grid can take delivery of what they produce, says Stephan Kohler, head of the German Energy Agency. Upgrading the grid, to beyond Germany as well as within it, would reduce waste and the risk of instability.200亿的国家电网计划是另一项用来调节微观层面繁荣发展的宏观项目。该计划认为,当务之急是将北方的风电输送至南部、西部的消费者家中。倘若如此,其他地区的可再生能源理应有所缓解。我们只能批准那些设立在电网覆盖范围内的新风电、太阳能项目,“我们不得不以此来协调基础设施同可再生能源的关系”,德国能源机构主席Stephan Kohler表示。升级德国境内外的电网将会减少资金浪费,降低不稳定的危险。But the vision is contested. Expansion of the grid has been thwarted by bureaucrats’ inertia, politicians’ foot dragging and activism by those who hate transmission masts as much as they do nuclear power. Even upgrades to existing lines can mobilise opposition, as in Quickborn, south of Niebull. Hard-core decentralists deny that power must be transmitted over long distances. “You can put the grid development plan directly in the bin,” says Matthias Willenbacher of Juwi, a big builder of solar and wind projects. Bavaria’s aspirations encourage such hopes. When the federal government tried to speed up cuts in the feed-in tariff for solar power, several states put up a fight, forcing a partial retreat. The renewables lobby, like the industrial one, demands stable investment conditions. Solar power will be competitive without subsidies by 2020, the solar lobby insists.但这种想法颇具争议。对于扩张电网,懒惰的官员阻扰之,政客们拒绝合作,激进主义者们厌恶核能,却也同样憎恨输电杆。即便是升级现有电路也会引起抗议,就如南尼必尔的quickborm发生的那样。顽固不化的分散主义者对电力必须长途传输的说法予以否认。大型太阳能、风能项目建造商Juwi的Matthias Willenbacher 说,“你可以直接把电网发展计划扔垃圾箱里”。巴伐利亚州“自给自足”的愿望鼓励了这种希望。当联邦政府试图加速降低太阳能发电的强制入网价格时,一些州挺身而出反抗之,最终迫使政府作出部分退让。和工业游说团一样,可再生能源游说团需要稳定的投资环境。太阳能游说团坚称,截至2020年底,即便是没有政府补贴,太阳能发电也会颇具竞争力。Germany is groping for a mix of top-down direction-setting and bottom-up buy-in for its Energiewende to work. The federal government may limit foes of transmission projects to one court challenge. But consultation with citizens is vital, reckons Mr Matthiessen. TenneT, which operates the grid in Schleswig-Holstein, wants to extend the wind park idea to the transmission network, offering stakes in a line along the west coast. But Mr Bockholt, Niebull’s mayor, sounds a warning: Schleswig-Holstein’s plans to harvest its wealth of wind will soon “reach the limits of what is tolerable”.为保能源转型能起作用,德国正在探索一条自上而下发布号令与自下而上逐级买进的混合路子。联邦政府有权向法庭对转换项目的妨碍者提出异议。但Matthiessen先生认为,同市民商量才是最重要的。运行席勒斯威格-霍尔斯坦州电网的TenneT公司,想将风力电场的理念延伸为电力传输系统,就在向市民出手西海岸沿岸一条电路线的股权。但是尼必尔市市长Bockholt先生对此发出警告:席勒斯威格-霍尔斯州的丰富电力收获计划将很快“达到可承受的极限。”It is hard to think of a messier and more wasteful way of shifting from fossil and nuclear fuel to renewable energy than the one Germany has blundered into. The price will be high, the risks are large and some effects will be the opposite of what was intended. Greenhouse-gas emissions are likely to be higher than they would have been for quite a while to come. But that does not mean the entire enterprise will fail. Politicians cannot reinvent the Energiewende on the run, but they can stay a step ahead of the risks and push back against the costs—and they are beginning to do so. In the end Germany itself is likely to be transformed.在将矿物燃料、核燃料向可再生能源转换上,德国已经误打误撞的走出了自己的路子,很难再想出一个比德国的更棘手、更耗资的方式。转型价格将高居不下,转型风险巨大、而有些地方也可能事与愿违。在未来很长一段时间内,温室气体排放量极有可能比预期中要高。但是这并不意味着能源转型这项事业将崩溃瓦解。能源转型计划已付诸实行,政客们虽无力改造,却能像德国人正开始做的那样,预测风险,并压缩开。最终可能发生转变的或许是德国自身。 翻译:王葭苇译文属译生译世 /201607/453718

Criminal justice in Japan日本的刑事司法Forced to confess屈打成招Suspects in Japanese police cells are far too vulnerable to abuse日本监狱里的政治嫌犯极其脆弱,易受欺凌ON THE face of it Japans system of criminal justice looks as if its gets a lot right. Crime rates are lower in Japan than almost anywhere else—the murder rate is less than a tenth of Americas. Those arrested for minor wrongdoing are treated with exceptional leniency. Less than one in 20 Japanese deemed to have committed a penal offence go to prison, compared with one in three of those arrested in America, where the average jail term is much longer. In Japan the emphasis is on rehabilitation, especially of young offenders. The rates of recidivism are admirably low, partly because the state is adept at involving families in reforming those who stray.日本的刑事司法体系表面看来是挺公正的。日本的犯罪率比大多数国家都要低得多——谋杀率连美国的十分之一都不到。那些由于轻微违法行为而入狱的人通常会得到特殊的宽大处理。犯了刑事罪的人中只有不到二十分之一的会进监狱,而这个比例在美国则是三分之一,且刑期也比日本长得多。日本注重的是对罪犯,尤其是对年轻罪犯的改造。惯犯的比例也是极其的低,部分原因在于日本在改造这些迷失自我的人时善于融入家庭的力量。Yet the states benign paternalism has a dark side. The chief reason the system looks good is that Japan is a remarkably safe society. And where once police worked closely with local communities to solve crimes, now they struggle to catch criminals. The system relies on confessions, which form the basis of nine-tenths of criminal prosecutions. Many confessions are extracted under duress. Some of those who admit guilt are plainly innocent, as recent exonerations have shown. The extraordinary lack of safeguards for suspects in Japanese interrogation cells is a stain on the whole system, failing victims as well as those wrongly convicted.但日本家长式作风有利有弊。日本司法体系看起来运作良好,主要是由于日本是一个非常安全的社会。曾经,为了破案警民密切合作,而现在,警方想要抓住罪犯却困难重重。日本司法体系的根基依赖于招供——90%的刑事起诉案件即是如此。很多人是在胁迫之下承认了罪行。最近的无罪声明显示,在承认罪行的人中,有些明显是无辜的。日本审讯室中的嫌疑犯极其缺乏安全保障,这是日本司法体系的一个污点,也让受害者以及那些蒙冤者失望至极。Say you did it, even if you didnt欲加之罪 何患无辞In a country more inclined than the West to think of itself as a big family collective, admission of guilt is often seen as the first step to mission into society. It is also the surest route to a conviction. Prosecutors and police are thus under immense pressure to make suspects talk, and have powerful tools to encourage them to do so.相比西方国家,日本社会更像一个集体式的大家庭,在这个国家里,承认犯罪通常被视为洗心革面重回社会的第一步。同时这也意味着定罪。日本检方和警方因此不得不在巨大的社会压力下逼嫌犯招供,而他们也有这个本事。Common criminal suspects may be held in detention for 23 days without charge. Many have only minimal contact with a lawyer. Few interrogations are recorded, and then not in their entirety, so there is not much to stop interrogators piling in. Physical torture is rare, but sleep deprivation, which is just as effective, is common. So are various other forms of psychological coercion. Some interrogators use moral blackmail (“Think of the shame you are bringing on your family”). A few, if they are convinced that the suspect is guilty, simply fabricate a confession and press the suspect into signing it.如果不经控告,一般嫌犯可能会被拘留23天。许多嫌犯与律师取得联系的机会微乎其微。审讯一般都不会被记录下来,即便记录也非全部,因此阻止审讯员介入,无太多可为。身体上折磨少有,而与之同效力的剥夺睡眠却十分见。因此形成了多种心理逼供。一些审讯员用精神压迫进行逼供(“比如,想想你给你家人带来的耻辱”)。如果他们确信犯罪嫌疑人有罪,一些审讯员甚至会捏造一份认罪书然后逼迫嫌犯签字画押。In a court system without an adversarial approach to establish innocence and guilt, judges too rarely question whether confessions really are voluntary. Yet time and again innocent people have been shown to confess to crimes in the hope of a more lenient sentence—or simply to make the interrogation stop. In October a mother convicted of killing her daughter for the insurance money was released after a crime reconstruction proved her innocence. Last year Iwao Hakamada was freed after 46 years on death row when a judge declared that his conviction was unsafe (among other things, he appears to have been tortured at the time of his arrest). One lawyer estimates that a tenth of all convictions leading to prison are based on false confessions. It is impossible to know the true figure, but when 99.8% of prosecutions end in a guilty verdict, it is clear that the scales of justice are out of balance.在没有抗辩制度确认无罪或有罪的法庭中,法官很少质疑被告人悔罪是否出于自愿。然而屡次无辜者曾被指示:供出罪行便有希望获得较轻处罚——或者仅仅只为终止审问。十月,一位曾被指控为谋保险金而杀死自己女儿的母亲,在案卷重审后得意无罪释放。去年,经历了46年死囚生涯的Iwao Hakamada也被释放,因为法官宣布据不足,不能认定他有罪(从其他方面,他似乎在被抓捕期间已经备受折磨)。据一位律师估计,所有获罪入狱的罪犯中有十分之一是基于不实的供认。虽不可能了解这背后的真实数据,但是99.8%的起诉案件最后都是认定犯罪嫌疑人有罪。由此可见,司法公正已明显荡然无存。As a step towards restoring due process, all interrogations should be filmed from start to finish. Suspects should have y access to defence counsel, to whom prosecutors should also disclose all evidence. Interrogations should be much shorter; suspects should be properly rested. Investigators who fabricate evidence should be put in the dock themselves. Prosecution cases should rely more on detective work, and less on self-incrimination. Such reforms would not improve conditions in Japans psychologically brutal prisons (see article). But they would give the innocent a better chance of keeping their liberty.为了进一步恢复法定诉讼程序,应将审讯从始至终都拍摄下来并记录在案。嫌犯应有权诉诸于辩护律师,检察官也应向其辩护律师公开所有据。此外,还应缩短审讯时间、妥善安置嫌犯。对于编造供词的审讯员也应使其接受讯。起诉案件的处理应当更多地依赖于侦察工作,而非自我控告。这样的改革并不能改善日本监狱中心理逼供的残忍状况(见文章)。但是他们将会为无辜者提供一个更好的机会以维系自由。翻译:邓小雪 amp; 颜琪琳 校对:王丹培 译文属译生译世 /201603/430843

Hans Frank, who would go on to become a leading Nazi, first heard Hitler speak in 1920.汉斯弗兰克于1920年首次听到他的演讲后成为纳粹头目。Everything came from the heart and he struck a chord with all of us.一切都发自肺腑,他和我们产生了共鸣。He uttered what was in the consciousness of all those present.他说出了在场人士的心声。This is a key insight into charisma.这是领袖魅力的关键。Because charisma does not exist on its own in anyone.因为它不会单独存在于某人身上。It exists only in an interaction between an individual and an audience.它只存在于个人与观众的互动之中。An individual like Hitler who was telling the audience what they wanted to hear.比如希特勒,他所讲的正是观众想听到的。Many of them longed for a charismatic leader to lead them out of misery.民众渴望出现一位富有领袖气质的人带领他们走出阴霾。German history was rich in stories of such heroes.德国历史上这样的英雄人物历来屡见不鲜。Here, amongst the mountains around Hitlers house, the Emperor Frederick Barbarossa was, according to legend, sleeping, waiting to awaken and fight his final battles.据传说腓特烈大帝就沉睡在希特勒住所所在的山谷中,等待着被唤醒,与敌人决一死战。And one of the most popular tourist attractions of the time was this monument, completed in 1875, to Hermann, a tribal leader who had led the Germans to victory over the Romans nearly 2,000 years before.这座于1876年完工的纪念碑是当时最受欢迎的旅游景点之一,是为了纪念2000年前带领德国人战胜罗马的部落首领赫尔曼。This later engraving claims a direct link between Hitler and Hermann.不久人们就将希特勒与赫尔曼联系起来。Both portrayed as German heroes.两人都被描述成德国英雄人物。And Hermann was so important to the Nazis that Heinrich Himmler took over Wewelsburg Castle nearby in the 1930s, intending this place to be a centre of SS power.鉴于赫尔曼对纳粹的重要性,希姆莱在30年代霸占了韦维尔斯城堡意图将这里变成党卫军的权力中心。 译文属201511/409480

  Human rights and Europe人权和欧洲Playing to the right为权利上演的“宫心计”The Conservativesplans to reform human-rights laws are a muddle保守党针对人权法案的改革计划如今还是一团糟“UNWORKABLE”, “contradictory” and “incoherent”. Those were among the epithets that have greeted the Conservative Partys plans to reform Britains human-rights laws. The Tories have long wanted to scrap the Human Rights Act (HRA), passed in 1998 by a Labour government. On October 3rd Chris Grayling, the justice secretary, promised to do just that as the Tories gear up for a May election in which the Eurosceptic UK Independence Party (UKIP) threatens to lure away voters. In fact, the reforms will change less than supporters hope or critics fear.“不切实际”、“相互矛盾”又“杂乱无序”。这些词汇都是舆论对保守党改革英国人权法案计划的反应。一直以来保守党都想废除人权法案(HRA),该法案于1988年被工党政府通过生效。司法部长克里斯格雷林于10月3日承诺此种举动仅是保守党为了一个“五月的选举”做准备,对此选举最反欧的英国独立党(UKIP)扬言会拉拢选民。实际上,此项改革能改变的远不到持者所期望的或是批评者所担忧的那样。The HRA incorporated into British law the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), which Britain signed (and helped to draft) more than half a century ago. The act allowed Britons to pursue human-rights violations in British courts, rather than going to the European Court of Human Rights in Strasbourg. Although demonised by the Tories as European interventionism, the HRA actually made it more likely that human-rights cases would be heard in domestic courts, albeit in the light of internationally agreed principles.英国HRA将纳入大英律法,它于半个多世纪前签署(并协助起草)后缔结成欧洲人权公约(ECHR)。此项法案允许英国人在英国法庭之上追究人权侵害之责,而免于奔赴位于斯特拉斯堡的欧洲人权法院。虽然保守党将该法案歪曲成了欧盟干涉主义,但是根据国际公认的原则,HRA实际上更加使得有关人权的案件能在国内法院受审。Several decisions by the European court have particularly upset the Conservatives. The court ruled that Britains ban on any prisoners voting was unlawful; it laid down that whole-life sentences should be subject to review; and it insisted that Abu Qatada, accused of terrorist offences, should not be deported to Jordan without guarantees that neither he nor those giving evidence at his trial would be tortured. Eurosceptics and British tabloids have seized on these cases as evidence of European meddling in British affairs.欧洲法院所做出的一些决议,犹使保守党焦躁不安。法院规定,英国针对囚犯投票的任何禁令是违法的;它主张有关终身性的判决应该受到审查;而且法院坚持认为在没有对他或是其他与审判庭上提供据的人免受责难的担保之下,被指控恐怖主义犯罪的阿布卡塔达不应被流放到约旦。欧洲怀疑论者和英国的小报抓住这类案件作为欧盟干预英国事务的据。The Tories say they will replace the HRA with a new Bill of Rights. They argue that Britain has a long history of its own human-rights laws (including Magna Carta) and that the European court is overreaching. The Conservatives want to limit the rights of individuals (notably foreigners) under the convention in certain circumstances. The European courts judgments would be merely advisory as far as British courts are concerned. If the Council of Europe, the guardian of the convention, refuses to accept these changes, Britain would withdraw from the convention.保守党表示他们将以一个全新的权利法案替代HRA。他们认为,英国在很长一段历史上拥有自己的人权法案(包括《大宪章》)但欧洲法院如今过分干预。遵从公约为前提,保守党希望在某些情况下限制个人权利(特别是外国人)。只有英国法院还是有些忠实的,那么欧洲法院的判决也仅是参考而已。如果欧洲理事会—公约的监护者—拒绝接受这样的改变,英国将退出该公约。In fact the ECHR has less legal power than first appears. International treaties are difficult to enforce, and the court cannot force Britain to change its laws even now. Prisoners do not have the vote despite the courts objection to Britains ban. The main problem is political; other members of the Council of Europe may not want to put up with Britain continually ignoring the courts rulings, as the Tories proposals suggest they might.实际上,相较于ECHR的首次亮相,如今它拥有的法律权力弱了很多,国际条约难以强制执行,即使现在法院也不能强制英国改变它的法律。尽管法院反对英国的禁令,但是囚犯还是没有投票权。这主要是因为政治性问题;由于保守党的提议表明他们可能会继续无视欧洲法院的裁定,而其他欧洲理事会成员国也可能不想容忍英国的这种无视。Nor has European human-rights legislation proved as restrictive as critics suggest. In 2012, of 2,146 foreign offenders ordered to be deported, just 256 successfully appealed on human-rights grounds. In the 16 years since the HRA came into force, domestic courts have made 28 “declarations of incompatibility”, holding that British laws conflict with the European convention. In 2013, of 1,652 British cases dealt with in Strasbourg, judges found violations in just eight.欧洲的人权立法也不如批评家们指明的限制性。2012年,在被命令驱逐的2146名外国罪犯中,仅有256名成功的以人权缘由上诉。自HRA生效施行的16年间,国内法院给出了28 次有关“无法兼容的通告”,认为英国法律与欧洲公约存在冲突。2013年,在斯特拉斯堡处理的1652起英国案件中,法官发现仅有8起出现违规。Without the HRA, the liberties enshrined in the European convention would still apply to Britons, who would then have to revert to going to Strasbourg about human-rights violations, as they did before its introduction. If the promised Bill of Rights were at odds with the convention, appeals would multiply.没有HRA,欧洲公约中的一些自由许可可能仍旧适用于英国人,随之英国人就必须恢复到奔赴斯特拉斯堡处理人权侵害的问题—就像在签署公约之前一样做。若是承诺的权利法案与公约还是存在冲突,上诉可能会增多。Even if it ditched the ECHR, Britain would still be bound by the EUs Charter of Fundamental Rights, which draws on the convention. It would also remain bound by other international treaties. The UN Convention against Torture prohibits deporting people to places where they maybe abused. The Declaration of the Rights of the Child makes expelling foreign criminals with offspring in Britain tricky. And, since the act was passed, at least some of the convention rights–such as those not to be tortured or held indefinitely without charge–have become more firmly rooted in English common law (which is based on precedent), argues Philippe Sands, a law professor at University College London.即使英国挣脱了ECHR,它还是会受到《欧盟基本权利宪章》的限制,因为该宪章的制定借鉴了欧洲人权公约。英国同样会受到其他国际条约的制约。《联合国禁止酷刑公约》表明,禁止将人流放至他们可能受虐的地方。儿童权利宣言使得驱逐外国罪犯同时要机警处理他们在英国的后代。而且自从人权法案被通过,至少有一部分公约的权利—像是那些没有被虐待或是并无指控无限期收监的人—会变得越来越扎实的植根在英国普法之中(基于先例的普通法律),来自伦敦大学的法学教授菲利普桑斯如是表明。Devolution complicates matters further. The convention is incorporated into devolution legislation and the Good Friday agreements in Northern Ireland. Scottish police could therefore become subject to different human-rights obligations for crimes for which Westminster has responsibility (terrorism, say) and for those devolved to Scotland (most other offences). Having survived the Scottish vote on independence, the Conservatives proposals may shake the union again.权力下放会使事情更加复杂化。公约被纳入授权立法和《北爱和平协议》。因此,苏格兰警方会遵从于不同的人权责任针对那些英国议会责任的罪犯(恐怖主义),和那些被移交至苏格兰的罪犯(大部分因为其他罪行)。在苏格兰独立公投中胜利了,保守党的提议可能会再一次撼动这个联合王国。Yet for those who bemoan Europes influence, the court is a lightning rod for discontent. The Tory proposals look like a sop to them, ahead of an election. But the message that such changes would send is a bad one. Five countries, led by Russia and Turkey, were responsible for more than half the violations found by the European court last year. Getting them to comply with its rulings will be harder if Britain will not do so. For citizens of countries less committed to the rule of law than Britain, the court sometimes offers a final hope.然而对于那些哀叹欧洲影响力的人来说,欧洲法院就是他们宣泄不满的“避雷针”。在选举之前,保守党的提议看似安抚了他们。但是这种变化发出的信息走势并不好。由俄罗斯和土耳其领导的五个国家,要对在去年由欧洲法院发现的一半以上的违规行为负责。如果英国不愿遵守裁决,那么要让这五国一起依从裁决将会变得难上加难。鉴于相较于英国,这五个国家的公民那较弱的坚定程度,偶尔给法院还带去了最后的希望。译者:张娣 校对:周晓婷译文属译生译世 /201506/382891

  she was celebrating herself,its very happy他在为自己庆祝呢 很快乐Im not gonna judge you all but my first guest might,I dont know我不会对你们的歌声指指点点 但是我的第一个嘉宾可能会 我不知道my co-worker for only two more days is here.Simon Cowell is here只与我共事两天多的同事开了 西蒙·考威来了this is his last interview before he leaves American Idol这是他离开美国偶像前的最后一次访谈了and I dont know who im gonna carpool with anymore,I dont know,also on the show ive wanted him here forever我也不知道接下来我又将与谁一起拼车了 我不知道 在我的节目上我永远欢迎他before i even had a show,I wanted hime to sing for me and hes here today在我有自己的秀之前 我想要他为我唱首歌 今天他终于来了finally,Jack Johnoson is here and theres this amazing place here in California that i heard about最后 杰克·约翰森也来了 我听说加利福利亚有一个很棒的地方and when i hear aobut things that this is so inspiring.they rescue abused farm animals我听说了一些事 是多么激动人心 在哪里在农场里遭受虐待的动物得到救助its called ;the Gentle Barn;,Ive been twitting about it它被称作是“温柔之乡” 我曾经推特介绍过它Portia had a chance to visit there and brought some cameras with her鲍西亚有机会去那里参观了一下 还带去了一些相机and im gonna show you what she saw in the few minutes but it really is a pretty speical place,I cant wait to show you this place我将用几分钟的时间为大家展示她的所见所闻 那真的是一个非常特别的地方 我等不及要跟你们展示这个地方anyway, if youve been watching the show,You know that Greyson Chance is an amazing,12 year old singer that we found on Youtube对了 如果你曾经看过我们的节目 你应该知道我们在Youtube上发现了 一个12岁的音乐奇才格雷森·切斯just 2 weeks ago and when we found hime,he had maybe a couple of thousand views on Youtube就在两周以前 当我们发现他时 他在youtube上拥有几千个观众since he was on the show,hes got over 30 million views.incredible在他参加完我们的节目后 他已经拥有了超过三千万的观众 难以置信 /201606/447721。

  As more of the nations attention is focused on police shootings, more police departments are putting body-worn cameras on their officers.The idea is to improve relations and trust between police and the community.But bodycams raise some sticky questions about balancing transparency and respecting privacy.Here in Michigan, the American Civil Liberties Union has been asked to analyze the privacy issues surrounding bodycams and develop model policy to help address some of these concerns.Rodd Monts is with the Michigan ACLU. He tells us that while the ACLU doesnt know exactly how many body cameras are in use by officers in Michigan and across the country, their use has greatly increased in the last few years.Monts tells us the ACLU generally considers bodycams to be a win-win solution for both law enforcement and civilians.;It provides that level of accountability and monitoring when it comes to police/civilian interactions, and on the polices end, it provides them an opportunity to collect information on those interactions in cases where they may be alleged to have engaged in misconduct and have that not be the case,; he says.While bodycams offer great promise in the form of transparency and accountability, Monts tells us they do raise some concerns.;Technology usually outpaces policy,; he says. ;The cameras are a great device, but without appropriate policy and practice there is the specter of potential misuse and or abuse.;The ACLU is calling for policies that clearly indicate when officers should be using the cameras, how the collected data is stored, how officers can effectively communicate to individuals they encounter that they are being recorded, ;particularly when it comes to an officer entering a private home as opposed to being involved in a police chase,; Monts says.When it comes to monitoring potential police misconduct, Monts says bodycams are only part of the equation, pointing to other factors including officer training, implicit bias and cultural competency.Monts tells us there are a few pieces of legislation that have been introduced in Lansing that would provide some oversight regarding the cameras use and data collection. Among them is House Bill 4234, which would exempt police audio or recordings taken in private places from being accessible under the Freedom of Information Act.In its model policy, the ACLU recommends that bodycam footage be kept for six months.Monts explains that many people who support this technology want to hold on to that footage in perpetuity, ;even if that footage that has no material value or evidentiary value,; a policy that the ACLU rejects due to concerns of both privacy and practicality.;We have a problem with mass surveillance,; Monts says. ;We dont have a problem with capturing and reviewing that after a shift is concluded, deleting the that has no value, and retaining any of criminal activity for as long as it is needed as evidence, but other than that were not in support of maintaining data for undetermined periods of time.;Indefinite data storage has also gotten some pushback from some police agencies complaining of the costs associated with storing a lot of data for a long time.;If you are determined to maintain only that data that could be potential evidence, then youre going to have a lower cost of data storage,; Monts says.Monts tells us the ACLU believes that bodycam footage should be available under FOIA, but recognizes that ;the issue is complicated,; especially with regard to recording in private residences.Rodd Monts tells us more about the ACLUs stance on bodycams and recommendations for their use in our conversation above.201603/431610

  Libyas government利比亚政府Sailing into troubled waters驶向穷途A struggle to control oil exports reflects deeper dysfunction政府职能紊乱,无力控制原油出口“OIL IS our strength”, declares a billboard campaign launched by Libyas oil ministry. The advertising is meant to foster national pride in a country still riven with regional and tribal faultlines three years after the ousting of its dictator, Muammar Qaddafi. But in Libyas restless eastern half, sometimes known as Cyrenaica, armed federalists are trying to make that slogan a political reality.“石油是我们的力量。”利比亚石油部门在宣传活动中提出这句标语。在驱逐了独裁者卡扎菲·格达菲三年后,国家仍然四分五裂,部落存在断层。在这样的环境下,这句口号本是为了重聚国家的自豪感,然而在利比亚躁动的东半部,也就是所谓的昔兰尼加,武装组织却正将这一口号变为政治现实。Since July a group calling itself the Cyrenaica Political Bureau has blockaded Libyas main oil ports, the countrys chief source of income. Its initial pretext was to protest against alleged fraud in oil-export accounts, but its ambitions have widened. On March 11th it pulled off a coup, successfully loading and dispatching 234,000 barrels of crude oil—worth about m—aboard a North Korean-flagged tanker, in defiance of the central government.从7月开始,自称为昔兰尼加政府的组织就封锁了利比亚石油出口的主要港口,而这是国家收入的主要来源。最初封锁的理由只是反对石油进口诈欺案,但它的野心越变越大。3月11日,组织发动政变,无视中央政府,强行卸下234000桶原油(约3000万美元)调运到朝鲜油轮上。Authorities in the capital, Tripoli, responded furiously. On March 9th Ali Zeidan, the prime minister, called it an act of piracy and warned that the tanker would be bombed if it tried to leave the port of Es-Sider. Navy craft were mobilised to prevent the ship from departing. When it escaped nonetheless, apparently after a brief skirmish, Libyas acting proto-parliament, the 200-member General National Congress (GNC), voted to dismiss Mr Zeidan. Powerful local militias loyal to the GNC began an advance from Sirte, midway along the Libyan coast, towards the east. The rebels have been given two weeks to give up the oil terminals.位于首都黎波里的当局对此反映强烈。3月9日,首相阿里·扎伊丹称这是盗窃行为,并且警告油轮如果试图离开意赛德港口,将会遭到炮击,并派遣海军舰队组织油轮的离开。然而在经过了一场小冲突后,它仍然逃脱了,利比亚国民议会因此投票罢免了扎伊丹。议会所属的武装力量立即从苏尔特沿着利比亚海岸出发一路向东,要求反叛军在两周之内放弃石油港口。The drama has set the scene for what some analysts fear could be a descent into deeper disorder. The eastern rebels are no match for the better-armed government-aligned forces, and ordinary Cyrenaicans have little appetite for another all-out war, particularly given bitter local rivalries. But there is still a danger that the authorities in Tripoli may overplay their hand to the point of provoking full-scale rebellion in the east.戏剧化的事态发展使分析师原本认为的袭击恶化为深层混乱。东部反叛军无法对抗装备良好的政府武装力量,而昔兰尼加平民也不希望另一场全面战争爆发,尤其反对激烈冲突。然而黎波里当局仍有可能过度插手,从而引发东部大规模的叛乱。In moving to oust Mr Zeidan, the GNC asserted itself as Libyas prime authority. But it is divided along factional lines and has few tools to impose its writ. Blaming the ex-premier for the tanker fiasco, it also directed the state prosecutor to charge him with embezzlement. Mr Zeidan still managed to flee to Germany.在驱逐扎伊丹的行动中,GNC声称它们自己是利比亚主要的当局。但是它沿着派系线来划分并且用一些工具来加强自己的法令。对前任首相油轮事件惨败的指责,也带来了国家检察官对他贪污的指控。扎伊丹仍试图逃亡德国。In fact, many Libyans view the GNC as dimly as they had come to regard Mr Zeidan. Behind its manoeuvrings many see the hand of powerful Islamist groups, led by the Justice and Construction Party, which is affiliated to the Muslim Brotherhood. Frequently during Mr Zeidans year-and-a-bit in office, these groups moved to stymie his governments initiatives. The newly installed interim prime minister, Abdullah al-Thinni, a former defence minister, is thought to be close to the Islamists, as is the speaker of the GNC, Nuri Abu Sahmain. Both men are supported by the countrys best-armed militias, based in the city of Misrata, whereas Mr Zeidan was backed by armed groups from Zintan, to the southwest of Tripoli.事实上,许多利比亚人隐约地看待GNC如果看待扎伊丹一样。它的阴谋活动背后有许多能看到由公正和建设党领导的伊斯兰主义组织,隶属于穆斯林兄弟会。扎伊丹任职期间这些组织频繁的妨碍他政府的主动权。新上任的临时首相,前国防部部长Abdullah al-Thinni也被认为是伊斯兰主义者,就像GNC的发言人Nuri Abu Sahmain一样。他们都是由总部在米苏拉塔的国家最好的民兵持,然而扎伊丹是由来自黎波里西南部城市津坦的武装组织持。These rival forces have clashed around Tripoli for several months. In the wake of Mr Zeidans ejection the citys military council, which co-ordinates Tripolis various local militias, issued an order for the withdrawal of “forces occupying strategic positions”. This was seen as a warning to the Zintan group, which controls the capitals main airport among other places.这些敌对势力在黎波里发生冲突好几个月了。随着扎伊丹被负责协调黎波里大量当地的民兵的军事委员会驱逐,他们提出撤回“武装占领战略位置”的要求。这被看作是做对津坦组织的一个警告,该组织控制着首都与其他地方之间的主要机场。The main city in the east, Benghazi, has meanwhile become increasingly insecure. Near-daily bombings and assassinations appear to be aimed at undermining any authority, to the advantage of jihadist factions that seek to impose Islamic law. With oil exports slumping from 1.4m barrels a day to around 235,000, the central government has plundered the countrys foreign reserves to keep salaries flowing. It is not clear how long it can afford to continue.东城区主部班加西,同时日益危险。几乎每天出现炮轰和暗杀,旨在破坏任何当局,利用圣战主义派系来加强伊斯兰法律。随着石油进口量从每天14,000,00桶下降到大约235,000桶,中央政府还是掠夺国家的外汇储备来维持资金的流动。目前尚不清楚它能持续多久。These ingredients make a combustible mixture. Fighting in the east could provoke a wider insurrection there; and deepening disorder in Tripoli could tempt other local authorities, especially those in the deep south, to declare their autonomy. Should a Brotherhood-friendly government emerge in Tripoli, neighbouring countries such as Egypt and Algeria would become twitchy.这些因素都是这些混合情况一促即发。东部的争斗可能会引发更深的动乱,黎波里严重加深的动乱会引起其他当局,特别是南方的,来宣布他们的自主权。是否一个兄弟友好型的政府在黎波里出现,会引起周边如埃及和阿尔及利亚国家的焦躁不安呢。Libya may yet drag itself back from the brink. Rather than attempting to hold their ground at Sirte, the Cyrenaican rebels quietly pulled back to the old border line that demarcates the former federal region, which was abolished in 1963. Optimists point out that Mr Zeidan was ousted by an elected body, and left without a shot fired. GNC members have promised fresh national elections by midsummer. But just now that looks awfully distant.利比亚可能仍未将自己从边缘处来回。与其试图守住在苏尔特的立场,昔兰尼加反叛军悄悄回到老的前联邦区域的边境线,这边境线在1963时曾被废除。乐观主义者指出扎伊丹是由民选机构驱逐的,并未留下战火。GNC成员已经承诺在盛夏时举行新的选举。但这似乎看起来遥不可及。 译文属译生译世 /201507/383756If ever there was a case of love at first sight, it happened on January 17, 1942 at a dance in Asheville, North Carolina.On that night, 21-year-old Billee Gray met 28-year-old Private Charles Kiley, and after just a couple of weekend dates, they knew they were meant to be together.It wasnt long before Charles was shipped off to fight in World War II, but the two stayed in touch and forged their love through hundreds of letters.Charles and Billees daughter, son, and son-in-law have brought these letters together in a book: Writing the War: Chronicles of a World War Two Correspondent.Their son David Kiley tells us he first found the letters in the 1990s, but only through some of them from time to time.It wasnt until after his father passed away in 2001 that he and his sister really started to dig in and sort through all the letters.;Theres over 800 letters. Many of them were handwritten. So we had to go through and because of age, you know, we had to copy all of them and scan all of them so that we could handle them,; Kiley says. ;So it was quite a project.;Kiley tells us that throughout the process of sorting through the letters and putting together this book, he learned a lot about his parents and saw a lot of himself in his father.;It was an amazing window,; Kiley says. ;I was able to discover where my dad came from emotionally, in his head, to understand him better.;David Kiley will be at Nicolas Books in Ann Arbor on November 2 at 7 p.m. to talk about and sign the book.Listen to our conversation above to hear Kiley talk more about his parents, about his experience ing the letters, and to hear some of those letters by U of M students Meredith Starkman and Graham Techler.201511/407511

  Britain Sterling英国 英镑Weaker still and weaker屋漏偏逢连天雨The downgrade of British sovereign debt by Moody’s did not spook the markets. But investors were aly worried穆迪公司下调了英国主权债务评级,没有引起市场震荡,但却使投资者忧心忡忡“We will safeguard Britain’s credit rating with a credible plan to eliminate the bulk of the structural deficit over a parliament,” the 2010 Conservative manifesto. Well, so much for that. The decision by Moody’s, one of the three big rating agencies, to downgrade Britain from Aaa to Aa1 on February 22nd was a colossal embarrassment. Moody’s now ranks Britain’s credit lower than that of Luxembourgor the Isle of Man.2010年,保守党宣言称,“我们将通过议会出台一项减免大量结构性赤字的计划来捍卫英国的信誉评级。”但那也只是说说而已。2月22日,三大信誉评级机构之一的穆迪公司,决定把英国债务评级从Aaa下调至Aa1。这项决定让保守党十分尴尬。目前,穆迪公司将英国的信誉评级排在卢森堡和英国的属地曼岛之后。Will the downgrade harm the economy? In the past countries with lower credit ratings have had to pay higher borrowing costs. But neither America, which was downgraded in 2011, or France, which suffered a similar fate last year, have suffered much.这样的信誉评级的下降会对经济造成危害吗? 在过去的几个世纪里,一个拥有低信誉评级的国家只不过意味着他需要付更高的借贷成本。但不论是于2011年遭遇信誉降级的美国还是去年遭受同样命运的法国,却都蒙受了巨大的损失。It is hard to spot an immediate impact in Britain, either. Investors had expected the ratings agencies to act after last year’s autumn statement revealed that the government was struggling to reduce its deficit on schedule. The two other big ratings agencies—Fitch and Standard and Poor’s—both have Britain on “negative watch”.Sterling dropped to a 32-month low against the dollar and reached its weakest level against the euro since October 2011, but gilt yields actually fell.但是要立刻察觉出信誉评级的下调对英国经济产生的影响是很难的。在去年秋天的一份报告中指出英国政府正在按计划努力减少赤字后,投资者都盼望着信誉评级机构对英国会有所改观。但是另两家信誉评级机构惠誉和标准普尔都将英国评级下调至负面展望。英镑兑美元的汇率连续32个月走低,英镑兑欧元的汇率更是在2011年10月跌至历史最低点。国债的收益也有所下跌。Pull back a little, though, and the picture is more worrying. So far the pound is the weakest major currency of 2013. It has fallen even farther than the yen, where the decline had the explicit backing of the Japanese prime minister. In the past few weeks gilt yields have been rising relative to the cost of borrowing of the German government, too.但是,反观过去这段时间的走势,其形势更令人担忧。时下,英镑已算的上是2013年最疲软的货币之一。英镑比日元贬值的更多,但是日元的贬值状况已经得到日本首相详细规划以期有所改善。在过去的几周里,国债的收益有所提升,这与德国的借贷成本的下调不无关系。Several things are making investors wary of British assets. As Moody’s noted in justifying its downgrade, the performance of the economy has been poor; figures released on February 27th showed that GDP had shrunk by 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2012 and is still 3% smaller than it was in the first quarter of 2008. Growth forecasts for the next few years were lowered in the autumn statement.一些事的存在不得不让投资者对英国资产的态度变得谨慎。就在穆迪声明实英国信誉降级之时,英国经济状况就已经不佳了。2月27日公布的数据显示,2012年第四季度中,英国的GDP缩水了0.3%,相比于2008年第一季度的GDP值还少3%。在去年秋天的一份报告中称,对于未来几年的经济走势并不看好。A fall in the pound makes Britain’s goods cheaper for foreign buyers—a welcome tonic for exporters at a time when the current-account deficit is running at 3.5% of GDP. But sterling’s big decline in 2008 and did not cut the trade deficit. The downside of a weaker pound is that the price of imported goods, such as oil, will increase, further squeezing consumer spending. “It’s not just that our gilt outlook is weak; it’s not just that we’ve lost our triple-A credit rating; it’s that we’re really addicted to imported goods” says Jim Leaviss of M and G, a fund-management group. “A current-account deficit this large has historically preceded a sterling crisis.”英镑贬值对于外国买家来说是件好事,因为商品的价格更加便宜。而一向受欢迎,创造喜人收益的出口商,此时往来账户的赤字却占据GDP的3.5%。但是2008年和年的英镑贬值并未减少贸易赤字。疲软的英镑造成了一种下降的趋势,这种趋势使得类似石油这样的进口商品的价格增加,并使消费者的手头更加拮据。“之所以造成这样状况,不是因为我们国债的前景一片灰暗的,也不是因为我们已经失去了3A的信誉评级,而是因为我们的确是习惯于进口商品”,一位来自MG投资管理公司的吉姆·里维斯(Jim Leaviss)说道,“如此之大的贸易逆差使得它历史性的领跑了这场英镑危机。”Higher import prices are also likely to ensure that the Bank of England continues to overshoot its 2% inflation target, as it has for the last 38 months. Indeed, the bank recently predicted inflation would stay above the target for the next two years. Despite this, three members of the nine-strong monetary-policy committee—including the governor, Sir Mervyn King—recently voted for more quantitative easing.更高的进口价格也极可能把英格兰继续送上超出它所定的2%通货膨胀的目标的不归路上,因为这已经持续38个月。事实上,英格兰最近也预测到,在接下的两年里,这样的通货膨胀都将会超出预定目标。尽管有此预测,但在九强货币政策委员会中,包括英国央行行长默文·金恩(Mervyn King)在内的三名成员在,最近都投票持实行更大规模的量化宽松政策。With ten-year gilts yielding just 2%, domestic investors seem likely to lose money in real terms. Foreign investors might not be too keen to buy such a low-yielding asset in a depreciating currency. If Britain’s borrowing costs rise sharply, the government’s deficit-cutting task will be made even harder. However, this yield rise could be offset if the Bank buys more gilts in a further extension of QE.10年期的国债收益仅为2%,实际上,国内投资国债的人极有可能在赔钱。在货币贬值的情况下,外国投资者可能不太会热衷于购买这样的低收益资产。假如英国的借贷成本激增,政府想要完成减赤的计划就会更加困难。但是,假如英格兰在更大规模的量化宽松政策中,购买更多的国债,所增加的收益又会被抵消。The good news is that the foreign exchange and government bond markets are an ugly contest these days, in which few options look attractive. The indecisive Italian election result reawakened investor fears about the stability of the euro zone, and may make gilts appear relatively safe, as was the case in 2011 and 2012. Both Japan and America could loosen their monetary policy further, an approach that may put pressure on their currencies. Britain is not the only country with problems.这些天,外汇和政府债券市场进行了一场胶着的竞争,但双方都并未成为投资者看好的投资对象,这算的是一个好消息。但悬而未决的意大利大选却再度唤起投资者对欧元区经济稳定的担忧。但这样的状况对国债而言,还是相对安全的,这样的结论在2011年和2012年都得到了印。日本和美国都可能会进一步放宽他们的货币政策,并以此来作为对货币进行施压的一种方法。由此可见,英国并不是被麻烦缠身的唯一一个,他并不孤单。翻译:沈晓旭译文属译生译世 /201610/471396

  

  live and anything can happen.As you just said.因为是现场 神马都可能发生 就像你刚刚说的You get hurt. - Right.They wanna see people get hurt.They wanna see people get hurt.你都挂了 -是的 观众就想看演员受伤挂 他们是想看演员受伤挂Yeah. - Thats it.Thats all you are hoping for.是的 -就是这样 那就是你们想看的That much money. Yeah.It a throw and a drop. - Yeah花了那么多钱呢 就是 抛上去 摔下来 -是啊And how those adorable children of yours?话说你可爱的孩子们怎么样Theyre amazing, nice. - Theyre so cute.他们很赞 很棒 -他们超可爱的Harper and Gideon Theyre flourish, they turned 4 in October.哈珀跟吉迪恩 他们在慢慢长大 十月份他们就四岁了Yeah. They are super special.I...I dont know what to say about them.是的 他们很特别 我简直不知道该怎么描述了As their vocabulary increases then they started being able to make complex sentences.他们的词汇量一直在增加 然后他们开始能讲复杂的句子了So now they tell jokes.And they have their own senses of humor.现在他们都能讲笑话了 而且他们有自己独特的幽默感So I spend a lot of time trying to reprimand them all the time,所以我花了很多时间 试图训斥他们Dont do this.and stand like this.You know, its what you do when they are little.别这么干 注意站姿 你懂的 熊孩子小时候 你就要这么操心And when they start getting older.Now you can sit back a little bit and be amused by them.当他们长大点了 你就能少操一点心 能被他们逗乐They have...they love Knock-Knock jokes.他们超爱 ;叩叩谁在那; 的笑话They have no idea why or how the comedy of knock knock joke works.他们完全不懂 这怎么会成为喜剧里的梗Their favorite one is this Knock knock - Who is there.他们最爱玩的是这样的 叩 叩 -是谁Nicole. - Nicole who Nicole never bother me anyway妮可 -哪个妮可啊 妮可再也不能烦扰我 /201510/406901。

  Energy in Europe欧洲能源The gasman cutteth煤气工人面临裁员Europe could survive a cut-off of Russian gas, but only a short one短期内欧洲有能力应对俄罗斯天然气供应的中断,但也仅限于短期内NAPOLEON and Hitler both succumbed to the bitter Russian winter in their efforts at territorial expansion in Europe. Now, Vladimir Putin seems to be exporting a bit of Russian chill as part of his strategy to shift Europes borders in his favour. In recent days there have been ill-explained reductions in the flow of gas that Gazprom, a Russian state firm, supplies to Poland, Austria and Slovakia—possibly to warn them off re-exporting any of it to Ukraine.拿破仑和希特勒在拓宽欧洲疆土的战争中都败给了俄罗斯冷瑟的冬天。现在,弗拉基米尔·普京似乎又在利用俄罗斯寒冷的天气来控制欧洲疆土的。近日,俄罗斯过硬能源业巨头俄罗斯天然气公司莫名地削减了其对波兰、奥地利和斯洛伐克的天然气供应量,也许是在警告欧洲国家禁止向乌克兰再出口天然气。Russia provides one-third of the gas that other European countries rely on to heat their homes, generate electricity and feed industry. So far the assumption among western European governments and industrial gas users is that even if relations with Russia worsen further, there is little danger of a complete and long-term cut in supplies, since Russias government is so dependent on the revenues from gas exports.欧洲国家依赖天然气供暖、发电、为工厂提供能源,这些天然气有1/3是由俄罗斯提供的。目前,西欧各国的政府和工业燃气商推测认为,即使欧洲和俄罗斯的关系进一步恶化,长期的彻底停气的可能性也是很小的,因为俄罗斯很需要燃气出口带来的收入。However, a short-term interruption in the coming months, as winter descends, is not so unthinkable. Fortunately, most European countries would be able to struggle through. Their gas-storage facilities are about 90% full, since last winter was mild and they did a bit of further topping-up over the summer. Last year Europe imported 155 billion cubic metres (bcm) of Russian gas; stocks currently stand at 75bcm. So European energy distributors would have a few months grace to find alternative supplies.然而,在未来几个月的冬天里出现一个短期的供气中断是完全有可能的。好在欧洲有能力平稳度过一个短暂的停气期。由于去年冬天比较温和,同时欧洲在今年夏天又进一步增加了储气量,现在储气设备的储气量大概已达到90%。去年,欧洲向俄罗斯进口了1550亿立方米天然气,到现在为止的剩余存量还有750亿立方米。所以欧洲的能源经销商在未来几个月内有充足的时间去寻找替代供应源。Norway, a big producer, could pump a bit more. Chinas slowing economy and Japans reopening of some nuclear plants will mean more liquefied natural gas (LNG) is available on spot markets, though it is costly. Europe has the capacity to import more than 200bcm of LNG a year, of which just 20% is in use. Contingency plans being drawn up by the EU are also said to include cutting gas to industry to preserve supplies for heating homes and generating power.挪威盛产天然气,它可以适量增加对欧盟的供应量。中国的经济增长放缓,日本核工厂开始重建,这些因素都会使得现货市场上天然气的供应量增加,虽然不是免费的。欧洲每年最多可以进口超过2000亿立方米液化天然气,但是其中只有20%投入使用。据说,欧盟制定的应急计划还包这样一项:为了保障家用暖气和电力的正常供应,会削减工业燃气的供应量。Half of Europes imports of gas come down pipes that traverse Ukraine, and Russia has cut their flow several times since 2006 over price disputes with the Ukrainians. If it did so again, it might pump more gas down pipelines that bypass Ukraine. Trouble is, these do not reach those countries most dependent on Russian gas, such as Hungary, Bulgaria, the Baltic states and Finland. The Finnish coalition government is at risk of falling because the Green party is threatening to quit over plans to buy a Russian nuclear reactor, which it says would increase, not reduce, dependence on Russia.欧洲的进口的天然气有一半是从横穿乌克兰的管道输入的,自2006年乌俄就天然气价格发生争执以来,俄罗斯曾多次中断过这条管道的天然气流。如果这次俄罗斯手段照旧,那么它应该会增加其他绕行乌克兰的管道的天然气流量。但是问题是,这些扰心管道并不能到达那些最依赖俄罗斯供气的国家,如匈牙利、保加利亚、波罗的海诸国和芬兰。芬兰联合政府正面临着垮台的危险,因为绿党威胁要撤销购买俄罗斯核反应站的计划,他们认为这个计划会加重而不是减轻芬兰对俄罗斯的依赖。EU countries are making some preparations for short-term cut-offs but almost nothing has been done to reduce long-term reliance on Russia. There is much that could be done: governments could encourage the building of more cross-border pipelines to connect customers to sources of supply, including the underused LNG import terminals; more storage capacity could be provided; and those countries with shale reserves could get fracking. So far all that has been produced is hot air, and not the useful kind.欧盟国家正在为短期供气中断做准备,但是目前并没有采取任何措施来减轻欧盟对俄罗斯的长期依赖。其实有很多可以做的:政府可以鼓励开通更多的跨境管道,开发利用率不高的液化天然气进口港,从而连接资源的供应方和需求方;增大天然气贮备能力;页岩储量丰富的国家可以加工油页岩以开发能源。目前为止,欧洲所做的仅仅是夸夸其谈,而并无实事。 /201409/331500

  Japanese investment in South-East Asia东南亚地区的东瀛资本Outward bound向外拓展A weak domestic economy is spurring Japanese firms to expand abroad羸弱的国内经济形势鞭策着日本公司向海外进军IT IS not every day that the opening of a shopping centre attracts a prime minister, but then Aeon Mall in Phnom Penh is not any old shopping centre. The Japanese-built complex is Cambodias biggest, complete with an ice rink, television studio and bowling alley. For Hun Sen, the attending prime minister, it is a symbol of Japanese investment. Governments across South-East Asia are courting Japanese firms, and a torrent of yen is surging their way.一间购物商场的开张剪吸引了国家首相的参与,这可不是天天都能看到的事情。不过,位于金边市的永旺购物中心也不是一般的旧式商城。这间由日本人建造的综合体是柬埔寨国内规模最大的商城,其中还配备了溜冰场、电视演播室和保龄球场。对于这位参加了剪活动的首相洪森来说,永旺购物中心正是日本投资的象征。目前,东南亚各国政府都在极力讨好日本公司,而与此同时,后者也用大量的日元为自身铺出了一条康庄大道。Japanese investment in the region doubled to 2.3 trillion yen (24 billion) last year, the latest in a series of sizeable increases. Part of that is mergers and acquisitions by Japanese firms, which have skimped on investment at home and so have a cash hoard of some 229 trillion. SoftBank, a Japanese mobile carrier, just led a 100m investment in Tokopedia, an Indonesian e-commerce firm; Toshiba, a conglomerate, has pledged to invest 1 billion in South-East Asia over five years. A year ago Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Japans biggest bank, spent 536 billion to buy 72% of Thailands Bank of Ayudhya.日本人在东南亚地区的投资额连续大幅上涨,最新数据显示,去年该指标翻了一番,达到了2万3000亿日元(约240亿美元)。其中部分数额是由日本公司所主导的企业吸收与合并产生的。这些公司省下了在日本国内的投资款项,从而囤积了约有229万亿日元的现金储备。在日本移动通讯产业巨头软银(SoftBank)的领投下,印尼电商平台Tokopedia刚获得了1亿美元的融资;在过去的五年时间里,东芝集团(Toshiba)已经在东南亚许下了10亿美元的投资承诺。而在一年前,三菱UFJ金融集团(Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group,日本规模最大的)出资5360亿日元,购买了泰国大城(Bank of Ayudhya)72%的股权。During the first wave of Japanese investment, in the 1980s and 1990s, money poured into Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore, building up their automotive and electronics sectors. That flow largely ceased after the Asian financial crisis of 1997-98, when Japanese firms began to focus on Chinas vast, cheap labour force.在第一次日本投资潮期间,即20世纪的80年代和90年代,资本涌入泰国、马来西亚和新加坡,构建了当地的汽车和电子产业。而大部分资金流在97至98年的亚洲金融危机后便随之终止。从那时开始,日本公司便将发展焦点转移到了中土王国,后者所拥有的劳动力不仅规模庞大,其价格也十分低廉。Yet with labour costs now steadily rising in China, and political tensions between Japan and China continuing to flare, South-East Asia looks attractive again. Japanese investment in China fell by nearly two-fifths last year, even as it grew in places like Cambodia. Although China is still Japans biggest trading partner, Japanese firms invested nearly three times more in South-East Asia last year. For South-East Asian countries, too, Japan is an important hedge against China.然而,随着现在中土王国劳动力成本节节攀升,同时中日两国之间政治局势也在持续紧张,东南亚地区便再次成了令人垂涎三尺的宝地。即便是在柬埔寨之类的地区,去年的日本投资额也呈现出增长,但日方在华投资总额却下降了约五分之二。虽然中土王国目前还是日本最大的贸易伙伴,但去年日本企业在东南亚地区的投资总额比在中土王国的数额高出了接近三倍。对于东南亚各国来说,与日本方面合作同样也是一个抗衡中土王国的重要手段。But the embrace of South-East Asia is not without its critics. Some worry that the headlong rush to the region by Japanese banks, in particular, may prove short-lived. In 2013 the Bank of Japan began buying bonds with newly created money (quantitative easing), as part of a plan by Shinzo Abe, the prime minister, to banish deflation and boost growth. The central banks purchases left Japanese banks with lots of cash: they keep roughly 15% of their assets as excess reserves at the BoJ, earning minuscule returns. Since demand for loans in Japan is still subdued, they are hunting for borrowers abroad. Lending by Japanese banks to the rest of Asia, including China, has grown quickly since the end of 2012 and stood at 465 billion in June. But if Japans monetary policy changes, such flows could reverse.但是,一头扎进东南亚地区的策略也惹来了批评声音。部分人士担心,日本不顾一切地涌入该地区的行为,尤其是对于业来说,或许只是昙花一现。2013年,日本央行开始用新印的钞票购买债券(量化宽松),而这正是日本首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)消除通缩和刺激经济增长计划当中的一部分。央行的债券购入使得日本各大拥有大量现钞:他们只预留了15%左右的资产作为央行所需要的超额准备金,而这是只能获得极低回报的那部分。由于日本的贷款需求依旧疲弱,们便把目光投向了海外市场。包括中土王国在内,日本对日本以外亚洲国家的放贷量迅速增长。本次增长自2012年底开始,到了本年6月贷款总额已经达到了4650亿美元。但如果日本的货币政策变更,情况也会随之逆转。Meanwhile, Japans government wants local firms to invest more at home. Quantitative easing has weakened the yen, making it more attractive to do so. But Japans rapidly ageing population means the domestic market is shrinking, undermining the incentive to build new factories. For every Canon, a camera-maker, which recently said it would increase the share of its production in Japan, there are several counter-examples, such as Mitsubishi Motors, a carmaker, which is building a new factory in Indonesia. Japanese firms focus more on profits than in the past, thanks to improvements in corporate governance, notes Robert Feldman of Morgan Stanley, an investment bank; that is prompting them to look for better prospects abroad.与此同时,日本政府希望本地公司更多地在日本本土进行投资。量化宽松政策已经使得日元贬值,投资活动也显得愈发吸引人。但日本方面急速加剧的人口老龄化问题,意味着国内市场的持续缩减,阻碍着新工厂的投资建设。近期,对于每一家声明想要增加“国内制造”份额的厂商来说,例如佳能(Canon,相机制造商),都有着好几家“反例”在与之共存。比方说,三菱汽车(Mitsubishi Motors,汽车制造商)就在印度设立了新的工厂。投行根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的Robert Feldman表示,现在的日本公司比从前更注重于利润,而这都要归功于公司治理的进步;正是出于对利润的追求,鼓动着日本公司到海外寻找商机。With more production shifting abroad, Japans exports are also suffering. Deutsche Bank estimates that outbound investment reduced Japans trade balance by as much as 16 trillion yen in 2012, by providing local substitutes for Japanese exports. That is more than Japans trade deficit that year of 7 trillion yen. Profits from abroad were not sufficient to make up for the damage to the current account. As overseas ventures accelerate, they will help tilt Japan towards a trade deficit more often, leaving its financial system more vulnerable to the fragilities built up over decades.海外生产增加的同时,日本的贸易出口也遭到了沉重打击。根据德意志(Deutsche Bank)的估计,由于其他国家本土生产的产品,可以替代日本的出口产品,2012年日本的海外投资对本国贸易逆差的增加额为16万亿日元,而这比当年7万亿日元的贸易逆差数额还要高。海外的利润并不足以补偿国内经常账户的损失。随着海外投资的加速增长,日本会因而更容易地处于贸易逆差的态势,使得本国金融系统在数十年来累计的脆弱性之下无所遁形。The risk is that Japan could become a “rentier” economy, says Martin Schulz of the Fujitsu Research Institute in Tokyo. In this scenario, Japanese firms do not make the investments in Japan that are needed to generate broad-based wage growth, and focus instead on their foreign ventures. That would leave Japan living off the “rent” from its foreign assets, rather than the fruits of domestic economic activity.东京富士通研究所(the Fujitsu Research Institute)的Martin Schulz表示,海外投资的风险,在于日本很可能由此变成了一个“食利者”经济体。在上述情况下,日本公司不再向国内的项目进行投资,但国内投资是提高国内工资水平的必要因素;日本公司会专注于旗下的外国企业。这会使得日本经济靠国外资产的“利息”来存活,不再是由国内经济活动收益来撑。That prospect does not seem to be deterring Japanese firms. Just outside Phnom Penh is a new industrial park set up to lure Japanese manufacturers such as Minibea, which makes tiny motors for mobile phones, and Ajinomoto, which makes food seasonings. There is a constant stream of new tenants; the zone is now in its third phase of development, says Hiroshi Uematsu, who oversees it. “As a private firm, you need to go somewhere,” he says.这样的前景并没有阻止日本公司前进的脚步。就在金边市,有一片新建的工业园区,以吸引日本制造商的投资。例如,美蓓亚公司(Minibea,为手机提供微型马达的厂商)以及味之素公司(Ajinomoto,调味料厂商)都在该园区设立了厂房。园区项目的监管者Hiroshi Uematsu表示,现在不断地有新成员加入进来,而园区的第三期建设也在进程当中。他提到:“只要是一家私人企业,就需要走出国门去开拓新的领地。” 译者:颜士竣 译文属译生译世 /201411/340598

  Russia and the rouble俄罗斯和卢布As ye sow, so shall ye reap自己种下的恶果,自己承受The collapse in the rouble is caused by Vladimir Putins belligerence, greed and paranoia由于弗拉基米尔普京的挑衅、贪婪以及偏执,导致卢布崩溃VLADIMIR PUTIN has successfully suppressed dissent, squeezed out opposition and clamped down on the media, but he has not been able to control global financial markets. In recent days the rouble has collapsed; it has lost almost 40% of its value over three weeks. This is the biggest crisis of Mr Putins reign—and it is entirely his fault.弗拉基米尔普京成功压制了异议,挤出了反对者,严厉打击了媒体,但是他还是没能控制国际金融市场。近期卢布崩盘,过去三周,卢布价值暴跌40%。这是普京当政期间遭遇的最大的危机—而且这完全就是普京的错。Mr Putin will no doubt blame all the usual suspects—Western speculators who bet against his currency, Western imperialists who imposed sanctions on his economy, Western economists who failed to forecast that the oil price (down by half over six months) would fall as far as it has and, of course, Western newspapers that told him that his policies would lead to disaster. But the crisis is the inevitable consequence of Putinism—of aggression abroad and a corrupt-and-control economy at home.毫无疑问,普京将会把责任归咎于所有的嫌疑人身上—下赌注反对卢布的西方投机商,对俄罗斯经济采取制裁的西方帝国主义者,没能预测油价将会下跌到当前水平(过去六个月下跌了一半)的西方经济学家们;当然还有告诉他他的政策将会带来灾难的西方报纸。但是这场危机是普京主义不可避免的结果——国外挑衅加上国内受贿控制经济。Kleptocracy and its consequences腐朽政府及其后果The sanctions were imposed by the West because of his conduct in the Ukraine, where he has, among many things, seized territory, engineered a war and refused to investigate the shooting down of a civilian airliner. Meanwhile, he has failed to reform Russias economy, leaving it dependent on the energy industry that he has carved up among his friends. Had he chosen to build an economy based on the rule of law and competition rather than patronage and corruption, things would have looked very different.西方采取制裁是因为他在乌克兰的行为,他控制了该领土,密谋策划了一场战争,拒绝调查一架民航飞机被击落的事件。同时,俄罗斯经济改革失败,使得俄罗斯依赖于他从朋友那里瓜分来的能源工业上。如果他选择建立一个基于法制和竞争而不是互利互惠和受贿的经济体系,那么现在就会是另一番景象。In the short term, there is not a great deal that Mr Putin can do to get his country out of the mess that he has made. A huge interest-rate rise this week, following previous large increases, has not worked. Capital controls are not the answer. They can sometimes be effectively employed against short-term speculation, but in this case investors are rightly worried about an economy that is so reliant on one sector. Anyway, in such a lawless place, capital controls would be porous and could trigger runs on the banks which the country could ill afford. Russia still has reserves of 0 billion, but it also has foreign-currency debts of more than 0 billion.短期来看,普京不能让俄罗斯摆脱掉他制造的这个困境。紧接着前期的大幅上涨,本周利率大幅上升,但并没有起作用。资本控制不是解决问题的。资本控制有时在对抗短期投机买卖方面能起到有效作用,但是在这个问题中,投资者有理由担心一个这么依赖于某一方面的经济是否可靠。不管怎样,在这样一个目无法纪的地方,资本控制将会有很多漏洞,而且会引发挤兑,这点国家将很难承担。俄罗斯还有3700亿美元储备金,但是他还有超过6千亿美金的外债。To improve the long-term prospects of an economy that is heading into a deep recession, two bigger changes are needed. The first is that Russia should pull back from eastern Ukraine and seek some accommodation with the government in Kiev and the West that could lead to the lifting of sanctions. The second is a change to the countrys economic model. Mr Putin needs to take advantage of the fall in the value of the currency to diversify away from excess dependence on oil and gas, which make up two-thirds of exports; to improve the competitiveness of manufacturing and high-tech industry; to strengthen the rule of law; and to clean up corruption. To implement all this he should replace his pliant prime minister (and previous president), Dmitry Medvedev, with a credible economist such as Alexei Kudrin, who was a respected finance minister for 11 years. His oligarch chums might not like this, but Russians would be better off.为了提高陷入深度衰退的经济长期繁荣,需要两大方面的改变。第一个是俄罗斯从乌克兰东边撤兵,而且还要寻求和基辅政府以及可以解除制裁的西方国家之间的调解。第二个方面是改变国家的经济模式。普京需要利用货币价值的下跌,脱离对油和天然气的过度依赖,进行多元化发展,提高制造业和高科技产业的竞争力,加强法律,清理腐败。要实现上面这些,他要替换掉他容易摆布的首相(他也是前总统),德米特里梅德韦杰夫,换成可靠的经济学家如受尊敬的财政部长亚力克西库德林,他已任该职11年。他的寡头政治家朋友们可能不喜欢这个,但是俄罗斯人可能会更富裕。Sadly, none of this is likely to happen. Mr Putin will probably double down, railing against Western iniquity, stifling all dissent at home, destabilising Ukraine still more and interfering further in other neighbouring countries. And he will pursue a course of growing autarky, severing as many of Russias economic and financial links to the West as he can.遗憾的是,两者都不可能发生。普京可能会进行双重打击,怒斥西方的不公正,压制国内所有异议,使得乌克兰的政局更加动荡,更深入地干预其他邻国。他会追求自给自足,切断尽可能多的俄罗斯和西方的经济金融联系。A brazenly nationalist course will impoverish Russia further, making it impossible for Mr Putin to keep delivering rising living standards. He will gamble that the Russian people are foolish enough to trade prosperity for nationalistic fervour. This newspaper hopes he is wrong.一个厚颜无耻的民族主义进程会让俄罗斯更加贫穷,也会让普京更加不可能提高人民的生活质量。他在赌俄罗斯人民足够愚蠢,愿意用富裕来换取民族主义热情。本报希望他是错误的。译者:王呆呆 译文属译生译世 /201412/351289

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